India is heading towards its weakest monsoon in 17 years as the strengthening El Niño weather pattern weighs on rainfall, raising concerns over crop production and food prices.
Rainfall 15% Below Normal
India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall between June and September is currently 15% below the long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
If the shortfall continues, this year’s monsoon could become the weakest since 2009, when rainfall was 18% below normal. The IMD had earlier forecast a 10% rainfall deficit for the season.
Cyclone Could Bring Some Relief
Weather conditions could become favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal during the final week of September.
Christian Werner, managing director of Australia-based Global Weather Climate Analytics, said such a system could bring additional rainfall to eastern and northeastern parts of India.
However, he expects the cyclone to have limited impact on the overall national rainfall deficit. Werner estimates that the season could end with a shortfall of between 13% and 16%.
Forecasts Point to Continued Deficit
The CRUCIAL monsoon prediction platform at Lancaster University in the UK is also indicating a significant rainfall deficit.
According to its founder and planetary scientist Mark Roulston, the platform currently gives a 68% probability that the monsoon will end with rainfall 10% to 20% below normal.
With less than two weeks of the monsoon season remaining, there is limited time for rainfall to make up the existing shortfall.
Farmers Face Crop Risks
The monsoon is critical for Indian agriculture, with hundreds of millions of farmers depending on seasonal rainfall to irrigate their fields.
India is one of the world’s largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton, while the June-to-September monsoon provides most of the country’s annual rainfall.
A prolonged rainfall deficit could affect both the current harvest and the next planting cycle. Rice, sugarcane and corn sowing is already behind last year’s levels.
Food Inflation Adds to Concern
The weak monsoon is also adding to concerns over food prices. Food inflation rose for the seventh consecutive month in August, reaching 5.95%, its highest level this year.
Yuvika Singhal, an economist at QuantEco, said every one percentage-point decline in rainfall from normal levels typically increases food inflation by around 25 basis points.
Government Takes Steps to Control Prices
The government has already taken measures to improve food supplies and contain price increases.
It has allowed duty-free sugar imports to increase domestic availability. Authorities are also selling onions at subsidised prices in some states as part of efforts to control rising food costs.
With the monsoon season nearing its end, the rainfall deficit remains a concern for agricultural output, food prices and the wider economy.
