Chocolate enthusiasts worldwide are facing a bitter reality as cocoa prices soar to unprecedented levels, driven in part by the climate crisis wreaking havoc on crop harvests. Extreme weather events and shifting climate patterns have disrupted cocoa production for the third consecutive year, resulting in dwindling global supplies and surging prices.
According to the UNCTAD commodities price monitoring, the cost of cocoa, the essential ingredient for chocolate production, has skyrocketed by a staggering 136% between July 2022 and February 2024. On March 26, the futures market witnessed a historic milestone as the price per tonne crossed the $10,000 mark for the first time ever.
Consumers worldwide, already grappling with inflation and rising living costs, are now feeling the pinch of the cocoa price hike. The impact of climate change on cocoa production is unmistakable, particularly in regions like West Africa, which accounts for the majority of global cocoa supplies.
Cocoa trees thrive in equatorial climates but are highly vulnerable to weather fluctuations. The climate phenomenon known as “El Niño,” characterized by warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific, has intensified heatwaves and altered rainfall patterns, adversely affecting cocoa cultivation.
In West Africa, excessive rainfall during the fourth quarter of 2023 exacerbated issues such as swollen shoot virus and black pod disease, causing cocoa pods to rot and harden. Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the two largest cocoa-producing countries, bore the brunt of these climate-related challenges, collectively contributing 58% of the world’s cocoa between 2022 and 2023.
The International Cocoa Organization anticipates a global shortfall of approximately 374,000 tonnes for the 2023-2024 season, compared to 74,000 tonnes in the previous season. UNCTAD senior economist Rodrigo Carcamo underscores the significant impact of supply-side shocks on cocoa prices, highlighting the vulnerability of the industry to climate-related disruptions.
The surge in cocoa prices underscores the urgent need to address the climate crisis, with Carcamo emphasizing the importance of meeting climate targets and implementing mitigation measures. The cocoa industry serves as a poignant example of how climate change reverberates across sectors, underscoring the imperative for concerted global action to mitigate its far-reaching impacts.
