Japan has issued a warning about a potential magnitude 9 earthquake along the Nankai Trough. The impact could be catastrophic, with nearly 300,000 potential deaths, $1.81 trillion in losses, tsunamis, and large-scale destruction. The probability of such a quake is around 80%, according to the Japanese Cabinet Office. A rare megaquake advisory was also issued in 2023 after a magnitude-7.1 tremor near the same region.
Earthquake Risk in the Himalayas
Experts warn that the Himalayas are also due for a powerful earthquake. Geophysicist Roger Bilham has stated that multiple regions in the Himalayas must soon rupture in a massive quake, potentially magnitude 8 or higher. This is due to India’s tectonic plate slowly sliding under Tibet, with stress building up due to friction.
Vulnerable Indian Cities
Cities like Chandigarh, Dehradun, and Delhi are at risk due to their proximity to the fault lines. A 2020 study in Seismological Research Letters mentioned that the entire Himalayan arc is primed for a series of large earthquakes. Seismologists, including Supriyo Mitra, say the region is ready for a major quake, but the timing is uncertain.
Population Makes Impact Worse
Increased population density worsens the potential damage. For example, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake caused over 30,000 deaths, compared to around 2,000 in the 1819 Kutch quake, despite similar magnitudes. A modern repeat of the 1905 Kangra quake could kill over 2 lakh people.
India’s Readiness
Despite awareness, areas like Kumaon-Garhwal have not experienced a major quake in over 500 years, indicating growing tectonic stress. The main challenge remains unpredictability—such a disaster could strike at any time.
Key Takeaway
Japan’s preparedness serves as a warning. India needs proactive planning and disaster readiness to mitigate the consequences of a potentially devastating Himalayan earthquake.
