India is moving ahead with plans to expand its Rafale fighter fleet, but new concerns over France’s arms export practices are raising questions about long-term security implications.
India eyes more Rafales for Navy and Air Force
The Indian Navy has expressed interest in buying 26 Rafale-Marine jets, while the Indian Air Force has proposed acquiring 114 Rafale aircraft to be built domestically under the “Make in India” initiative. These additions would further strengthen India’s aerial capabilities, following the induction of 36 Rafales between 2020 and 2022 under a 7.87 billion Euro deal. The aircraft have already proven their effectiveness during high-intensity exercises such as Operation Sindoor, which simulated strikes on Pakistani targets.
Concerns over technology exposure
However, India’s decision to expand its Rafale fleet comes at a time when France’s export policies are under scrutiny. Security analysts have raised concerns that French sales of Rafale and Mirage jets to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates could be exposing sensitive military technology. Reports indicate that Pakistani and Turkish pilots have been training on these aircraft in Gulf nations, indirectly gaining insight into the Rafale’s performance and electronic warfare systems.
Experts warn of strategic risks
Europe-based defense researcher Babak Taghvaee has warned that France’s export practices could inadvertently empower adversaries of NATO and India. He cited Turkey’s partnership with Qatar, where Turkish pilots reportedly train on six Qatari Rafale fighters. “By allowing a close defense partner to expose Rafale performance to countries hostile to NATO members, France is showing the risks of its permissive export policy,” Taghvaee wrote in his analysis.
Past incidents heighten the alarm
Analysts also point to earlier cases involving the UAE, which allegedly shared Mirage 2000-9EAD technology and MICA missile data with China. This information is believed to have helped Beijing in developing its PL-10 and PL-15 air-to-air missiles. Emirati Mirage aircraft were also seen participating in exercises in China during 2023 and 2024, further fueling concerns about technology leakage.
Implications for India’s security
Experts warn that any overlap between Rafale systems used by Qatar or the UAE and Pakistan’s access to them could undermine India’s combat confidentiality. The exposure of radar signatures or electronic warfare details could reduce the operational advantage India currently enjoys through its Rafale fleet.
France’s lax export monitoring under fire
Unlike the United States, which enforces strict end-user agreements for its defense exports, France has been criticized for offering looser controls. The UAE’s earlier refusal to purchase the F-35A was reportedly due to Washington’s rigid oversight, while France placed few restrictions on its Rafale exports. This lack of monitoring, analysts argue, could damage France’s credibility within NATO if sensitive data continues to leak.
What’s at stake
If conflicts involving NATO or India arise against forces using Chinese or Russian missile systems, the compromised Rafale data could reduce the aircraft’s survivability and effectiveness. For India, which is investing heavily in expanding its fleet and local manufacturing capacity, these developments underscore the importance of balancing strategic partnerships with long-term operational security.
