Donald Trump’s potential return as US President in 2024 raises important questions about the future of India-US ties. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has highlighted that, regardless of who wins, Trump or Kamala Harris, America is likely to adopt a more isolationist stance. This shift could have wide-ranging implications for India, one of the US’s key strategic partners.
From trade and immigration to defence and diplomacy, a second Trump term promises both opportunities and challenges for India. Here’s how these dimensions could unfold:
Trade Dynamics: A Mixed Bag
During Trump’s first term, trade between India and the US was marked by both collaboration and conflict. Trump frequently criticised India for imposing high tariffs, labelling it a “big charger” and promising “reciprocal taxes” on Indian exports.
Trump’s protectionist policies could impact Indian industries like IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, all of which heavily rely on the US market. However, his aggressive stance on China presents a silver lining for India. Trump’s push to reduce US dependence on Chinese manufacturing might encourage American companies to shift their supply chains to India, opening new trade opportunities.
Immigration Policies: Impact on Indian Professionals
One of the most contentious aspects of Trump’s presidency was his hardline immigration stance. His administration tightened regulations on H-1B visas, which disproportionately affected Indian tech workers and IT firms.
If these policies are reinstated, Indian professionals may face hurdles in securing jobs in the US, and Indian tech companies could face higher operational costs. Nevertheless, Foreign Minister Jaishankar believes that despite challenges, the bilateral relationship will remain robust, as Trump has consistently expressed admiration for India and Prime Minister Modi.
Defence Cooperation: Strengthening Strategic Ties
Defence and military collaboration have been pillars of the India-US relationship. Under Trump’s first term, the two nations deepened their defence ties through significant agreements like the COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement).
A second Trump presidency is likely to build on this foundation. The Quad alliance, comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, has been a key tool for countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Trump’s return could see further expansion of joint military exercises, technology transfers, and defence equipment sales. Deals like the GE-HAL jet engine agreement might proceed smoothly, boosting India’s defence capabilities.
Diplomatic Ties: Leveraging Personal Rapport
The personal chemistry between Trump and Modi has played a significant role in strengthening bilateral ties. Their friendship was on full display during high-profile events like “Howdy, Modi!” in Houston and “Namaste Trump” in Ahmedabad.
This personal connection could facilitate smoother diplomatic engagement, even as the broader US foreign policy shifts toward isolationism. Trump has consistently praised Modi as a “great leader” and expressed a desire to deepen ties with India. This could result in enhanced cooperation in areas like energy, space, and counterterrorism.
Economic and Geopolitical Implications
India stands to benefit from Trump’s tough stance on China and his preference for bilateral over multilateral trade agreements. By positioning itself as a reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific and a viable alternative to China in global supply chains, India could attract significant investment and trade opportunities.
On the geopolitical front, Trump’s “Peace through Strength” approach aligns with India’s security concerns, particularly regarding Pakistan. A firmer US stance on terrorism could bolster India’s efforts to address cross-border threats.
Challenges on the Horizon
While opportunities exist, challenges are inevitable. Trump’s protectionist policies might strain India’s export-driven industries, and his immigration policies could limit the mobility of skilled Indian workers. Moreover, his unpredictable approach to international relations could disrupt global markets, impacting India’s economy.
Jaishankar has cautioned against over-reliance on any one administration, emphasising the need for India to adapt to a world where the US may not always offer the same level of support as in the past.
Navigating the Trump Era
A second Trump presidency could reshape India-US relations in significant ways. While challenges in trade and immigration might arise, opportunities in defence, diplomacy, and economic cooperation could strengthen the partnership.
India’s ability to navigate these complexities will determine the success of its relationship with the US, ensuring mutual benefits in an evolving global landscape.
