Claudia Sheinbaum is set to become Mexico’s first female leader, winning by a significant margin. Riding on the popularity of outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), Sheinbaum’s triumph brings with it the challenge of addressing rampant criminal violence and a substantial fiscal deficit left by his administration.
Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City and candidate for the ruling Morena party, is projected to secure between 55 and 63 percent of the vote according to three exit polls. Her main opponent, Xochitl Galvez, representing a coalition of opposition parties that dominated Mexican politics for nearly 90 years, is estimated to receive between 27 and 33 percent of the ballots.
The scientist-turned-politician faces a formidable task. During AMLO’s tenure, drug cartels expanded their influence across Latin America’s second-largest economy, resulting in record-high murder rates. Additionally, AMLO’s late-term spending spree on welfare programs, while popular among the working poor, has left Mexico with the largest fiscal deficit since the 1980s.
At 61, Sheinbaum must navigate the complexities of her victory, heavily indebted to AMLO’s legacy. With an approval rating of around 60 percent, AMLO remains a powerful figure, and Sheinbaum has pledged to continue his vision. However, she must also address the public security crisis and the economic challenges facing the country. Mexico’s recent elections, the largest in its history, were also the deadliest in modern times.
Amid a weakening economy, Sheinbaum needs to find a sustainable solution for state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the world’s most indebted oil company, which is straining public finances. Rating agencies have warned that failure to act could result in Mexico losing its investment grade status.
Sheinbaum’s commanding lead suggests that Morena and its allied parties are likely to perform strongly in the legislative elections, potentially maintaining control of both houses of Congress. Achieving a two-thirds majority would empower Sheinbaum to enact constitutional changes that eluded AMLO.
The official results for the congressional elections are expected to be released later, but Sheinbaum’s victory marks a significant turning point in Mexico’s political landscape.
